The decline in US air trade with China is being compensated by cross border e-commerce. After declining 11% in 2022, cross border e-commerce volumes have grown 55% in 2023 and are now 38% higher than in 2021. This increase is evident in South China and Hong Kong air cargo traffic into the US.
Top US E-Commerce Platforms
The chart below shows a ranking of the top 20 e-commerce platforms in the United States based on web traffic for the period between August and October 2023. Amazon is by far the dominant platform in terms of traffic, followed by eBay, Walmart and Etsy. Note of caution: traffic does not equal sales, but it’s still a good indicator of the relative importance of each platform.
Amazon, Temu and aliexpress are the most popular cross border platforms. Wish is not ranked in the top 30 and Shein falls into a different category, but generates about two thirds of the amount of traffic generated by Temu. These are the platforms that are most likely driving air volumes into the US.
US Cross Border E-Commerce Performance
Most cross-border e-commerce traffic is low value and information on these shipments is generally not disseminated as part of trade statistics. The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) does provide information on shipments that fall below the de minimis threshold of $800. Other than goods from Mexico or Canada, most cross-border e-commence moves by air. The chart below provides an overview of the share of postal, general airfreight and express air for Section 321 (de minimis) shipments into the US over the last five years.
The chart below provides an overview of shipments between FY2016 and FY2023 (with fiscal years ending in September). While the was a big drop in FY2022, volumes more than recovered in 2023 and now are 38% higher than they were in 2021. Growth during the pandemic was somewhat stifled due to lack of reasonably priced air capacity.
Around two thirds of shipments are imported from China and Hong Kong, and a further 10% from Canada and Mexico.
This uptick is not reflected in US air import data from China, but traffic data (which at time of writing is current through to the end of August) shows an uptick in flown tonnage from Southern China to the US. Most Chinese cross border e-commerce originates from Southern China and is either flown out directly or via Hong Kong.
Chinese trade statistics, which contain special commodity cost categories for B2C and B2B e-commerce also show an increase to North America, particularly over the last four months.
Be First to Comment