After two bad years of declining international air cargo volumes, we should be in for a good year – possibly somewhere in the order of 10% growth based on our latest forecast. For context, that would put us somewhere close to where we were at the end of 2021. Should we believe our own numbers? If cross border e-commerce traffic remains strong, manufacturing recovers and the outlook for global growth continues to improve then it is likely that we also see a recovery in air cargo traffic. The ongoing situation in the Red Sea forcing longer routings between Asia and Europe is also likely to increase the demand for air (and rail) freight on that lane.
2024 – 2028 Forecast
Based on our most recent forecast we expect air cargo growth of somewhere between 10-11% in 2024, followed by more normal growth rates thereafter. This follows a tumultuous 6-year period with steep declines in 2019 and 2020, a strong rebound in 2021 and years of declining traffic. 2023 declines would have been larger had international air cargo traffic not received a boost from a surge in cross border e-commerce traffic from China.

For reference, our own forecast is somewhat more optimistic than other recent cargo predictions in the short term, but more conservative in the long term:
- In their February forecast, ICAO predict growth of only 2% in 2024
- Airport Council International expects global cargo volumes to increase by 6% in 2024 and a further 11% in 2025, and a long term growth of about 3.3% for the next 20 years. That would indicate a delayed recovery at odds with overall economic expectations, but definitely worth noting.
- Cirium’s January freighter forecast predicts long term cargo traffic growth of approximately 4% between 2023 and 2042.
- Airbus’ Global market forecast prepared last year in June foresees growth of 3.2% between 2019 and 2042, with express growing faster than general cargo (4.9% vs 2.7%).
Our own forecast expects international growth of 3.8%-4.1% over the next five years and more mature growth of between 1.8%-1.9% per year thereafter. International air cargo traffic accounts for over 85% of global air cargo traffic – most of the remainder is US domestic traffic.
Cross Border E-Commerce
International air cargo traffic consists of a mix of general cargo, express small package, e-commerce and postal traffic. Air trade information in customs statistics capture most general cargo but reporting thresholds and simplified declaration for e-commerce and small package shipments mean that somewhere between 20-30% of air cargo volumes are not captured. Traditionally, air trade and air cargo volumes moved in sync, although express has consistently outgrown general cargo. However, the surge in cross border e-commerce has changed this picture. For most markets last year air trade was strongly negative, but air cargo traffic less so. The two charts below provide a comparison for Asia Pacific to US and EU traffic vs trade data, with one series showing the twelve month moving average of air cargo traffic, the other air trade and a third one showing the ratio of air trade to air traffic.


The ratio of air trade to air traffic has followed a general downward trend but this gap has accelerated substantially in the last two years as general airfreight declined and e-commerce traffic grew. We maintain that the growth trajectory for cross border e-commerce is not sustainable – particularly if when fast growing platforms like Shein or Temu get smarter at positioning inventory in destination markets for fulfilment rather than shipping by air from China.
Manufacturing
International airfreight is an industrial tool. Most products moved by airfreight are not finished goods but supply chain cargo. Manufacturing activity has been weak for at least the last one and a half years and longer in key European manufacturing locations. Airfreight will pick up when manufacturing picks up. Recent indicators do indicate that the declines in manufacturing have bottomed out. The near term outlook in the US has improved, in Europe it has not – at least not in Germany and Italy. Nevertheless things could pick up in the 2nd and particularly 3rd and 4th quarters of the year. The chart below shows the number of countries with purchasing manager index values above 50 between January 2020 and February 2024, as well as a forecast for Q1 – Q4 2024.
