Airfreight is primarily an industrial tool, with roughly three quarters of airfreight traffic linked to the various stages of production. Global manufacturing and airfreight tend to move in sync. Based on the outlook for manufacturing we expect US airfreight exports to decline by about 7% and imports to drop by about 3% in 2023.
Depending on how December 2022 numbers come out, full year US airfreight exports in 2022 will have grown around 3% and imports around one percent. 2022 is a tale of parts, with the first part of the year showing decent levels of growth and the latter part recording increasing declines. Much of this decline in the second half was driven by China.
US manufacturing activity and air cargo show reasonable levels of correlation (see figure one), which intuitively makes sense, given that a large part of air cargo is intercontinental supply chain cargo.
US manufacturing had a good run – 28 months of expansion starting July 2020, but started to soften in October 2022. PMI’s are expected to be slightly below 50 for the first half of the year and then slightly above 50 for the remainder of the year. Figures below 50 point to contracting of manufacturing activity.
Figure 2 (below) provides a forecast for US airfreight exports and imports for the next 12 months. We expect declines to be in the double digit range for the first half of the year and single digit for the remainder. Let’s see in six months time how accurate this forecast turns out to be!
Figure 2 – US Airfreight Forecast Jan – Dec 2023
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