Downgrade of 2024 Air Cargo Growth Expectations

Despite a strong start for the air cargo business in the first quarter of this year, the underlying economic fundamentals point to more subdued growth for the remainder of the year. Compared to our last forecast prepared just under three months ago, we expect global air cargo growth for 2024 to be slightly lower – 8.9% vs 9.9%. Much of this is due to a slight downgrade of economic growth and trade projections, as well as a diminishing boost from cross border e-commerce volumes.

2024 – 2029 Forecast

With the publication of the latest IMF and OECD forecasts in April and May, respectively, we have also revised our own medium term outlook for global air cargo which we published in early March. Overall we predict world air cargo traffic growth of 8.9% with potential upside of 10.6%. Growth in subsequent years through to 2029 is also expected to be slightly lower than previously forecast.

Figure 1 – International Air Cargo Traffic Growth 2015 – 2029F

Overall Trade Outlook

In 2024 we expect international air cargo to perform better than global trade volumes, but underperform global trade thereafter. Part of this higher than trade performance is predicated on a recovery of manufacturing in the second half of the year – particularly in Europe, which has been lagging.

Figure 2 – International Trade Volume Growth 2015 – 2029F

Global averages no not do individual market developments credit. While most global economies are expected to be within the 2-3% growth segment over the next six years, India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Malaysia are expected to outperform other major economies.

Figure 3 – Export and Import Volume Growth Forecast 2023 – 2029

Manufacturing

International airfreight is an industrial tool. Most products moved by airfreight are not finished goods but supply chain cargo – even though everyone talks about e-commerce and nothing else. Manufacturing activity weakened significantly from the beginning of 2023 and is not expected to show widespread improvement until the beginning of the third quarter of this year. The chart below shows the number of countries with a manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) of over 50 between Jan 2020 and the 1^st quarter of 2025. Actual data is current through to April 2024.