For the past three years, cross border e-commerce traffic of Chinese origin has been the main force behind international air cargo growth. However, we think the share of low value direct to consumer traffic on intercontinental routes may have peaked. In fact, for 2026 we expect a drop of around 10%, while growth rates in 2027 and beyond are likely to be less than the strong double-digit rates we have become accustomed to. This article presents our latest outlook through to 2031 and discusses the dynamics around demand, supply, costs and their impact on industry profits.