Uzbekistan is an interesting place and not just because we have a fondness for Plov. With a population of 34.5 million it is the largest country in Central Asia and the Caucasus region and the second largest economy after Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan’s import and export market is also more diverse than other countries in the region, which typically generate two thirds of their import and export value with energy, mining and bulk agricultural commodities. Despite being landlocked, Uzbekistan has grown imports and exports faster than other countries in the region and is expected to continue to do so.
Trade Overview and Outlook
Uzbekistan imported and exported about $28 and $10 billion worth of goods, respectively in 2022. Four countries – China, Russia, neighbouring Kazakhstan and Turkey accounted for about 60% of 2022 trade value. Overall import value increased by 26% in 2022, while export value increased 14%. This is broadly in line with the forecast prepared by the International Monetary Fund and published in their Oct 2022 World Economic Outlook and shown below. 2023 performance is expected to be similar as is the performance over the total period between 2022 and 2026, which would see trade value increase by 75% over four years.
To put this in context, the country’s population is expected to expand 10% between 2021 and 2026 and GDP per capita, a measure of wealth, is expected to grow by just under 3% per year between 2021 and 2026. The highest GDP per capita growth is expected in Georgia, which is forecast to grow at 6% per year.
Composition of Imports and Exports
About 40% of import value is attributable to energy, mining, and bulk agricultural products such as steel, refined petroleum, cereals and sugar. About half of exports fall into this category, with copper, gas, fertilizers being the three largest single categories. Our analysis excludes these commodities and focuses on intermediate and consumer goods, as well as food products.
Both weight and trade value in these commodity groups are higher than pre-pandemic levels. In fact, trade during the pandemic was only affected for about six months and rebounded quickly thereafter.
All import major import categories increased in 2022, although some – such as industrial equipment and parts remain below 2019 levels. Automotive related imports (consisting both of vehicles and vehicle parts), primarily from South Korea and China increased by about 30% in weight and 41% in value terms. Pharmaceutical traffic has been showing steady growth, with India being the primary origin.
China, the Russian Federation, South Korea and Turkey are the four main trading partners. China is the number one source of imports, while Russia is the number one destination for exports.
In terms of value the top three export products relate to the textile industry and food (mainly fruit). Uzbekistan is an important exporter of cotton yarn, fabrics as well as finished garments to the Russian Federation, Turkey, and the Kyrgyz Republic. Automotive exports, consisting primarily of engines and vehicles to Kazakhstan dropped 12% in 2022 in weight terms but increased by 38% in value terms.
Figure 8 (below) shows a graphical overview of the top performing trading partners (with more than 10,000 tonnes of trade in 2022).
Some of the fastest growing trading partners in 2022 included Ecuador (fruit imports), the UAE (imports of computers and other tech equipment), Pakistan (pharmaceuticals and food), India (pharmaceuticals and textile machinery), Georgia (a mix of exports and imports of medicaments) and exports to Azerbaijan. These countries outperformed the main trading partners China, Russia, South Korea and Turkey.
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