Intercontinental air cargo capacity is likely to remain constrained for the next five years. That is partly due to insufficient new belly capacity entering the market but also delayed entry into service of all new-build and passenger-to-freighter conversion programs. If demand proves to be resilient, rates and profits are likely to remain above their historical average. That is good news for those who have aircraft deliveries locked in, but all others seeking to expand will have to wait or utilise less efficient or suboptimal equipment. This article discusses the outlook for air cargo capacity and demand through to 2030.