The Australian international air cargo market generated about 1.15m tonnes in the last 12 months, with inbound accounting for almost 60% of this. If recent growth in inbound cross border e-commerce traffic continues then the market could grow by almost 5% per year for the next five years. Exports could grow by as much as 4% if volumes recover to the 2018 peak levels. Without this we would expect lower growth rates for both imports and exports of around 1% per year. This article discusses long-term Australian air cargo market trends our latest forecast for inbound and outbound air cargo between 2025 and 2030.
Australian Air Cargo Market Overview
Airfreight accounts for about one quarter of the value of Australian imports worth A$72 billion (about US$50 billion). Machinery and equipment, apparel and footwear, electrical equipment, high tech, computers, mobiles phones, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment are key import groups. Low value import consignments less than A$1000 add another $9 billion to this figure. Thes comprise primarily of cross border e-commerce purchases from China as well as the US and the UK which together account for roughly 75% of purchases abroad.
From an export perspective air freight carries about 12% of the value of Australian trade, or about A$23 billion. This figure increases to 33% when excluding exports of mining, energy and bulk agricultural commodities. Meat, seafood and other perishable products are the primary air export commodities.
Asia Pacific is both dominant as an origin market for a range of goods, although Europe and North America are important sources of imports. Middle Eastern markets are important outlets for Australian meat products.
New Zealand is the third largest export and fourth largest import market with perishable traffic dominating inbound and a range of consumer goods and equipment making up most of the export market. Australia has an important role as a distribution centre for air cargo destined for the Southwestern Pacific, including New Zealand.
The Australian international air cargo market generated about 1.15m tonnes in the 12 months ended April 2025. This included 666,500 tonnes of inbound and 434,000 t of outbound traffic.
Most Australian air cargo is moved in the bellies of passenger aircraft – about 80% of total inbound cargo, or over 90% once DHL, FedEx and UPS freighter traffic is excluded. Singapore Airlines, Qantas, Cathay Pacific and Emirates are the most prominent carriers in the market.
Australian Air Cargo Market Trends
Inbound and outbound international air cargo have followed different long term trajectories.
Exports hardly grew between 2003 and 2013, but grew 10% per year between 2014 and 2019, thanks to China. The subsequent drop was also because of less exports to China. Volumes have been recovering as trade relations with China have improved, but remain 20% below the 2018 peak. Meat has been the primary driver of exports.
Since 1990, inbound air cargo has seen significant declines: 2000-01, 2008-09, 2012-16, 2018-20 and 2022-23. Current inbound volumes are roughly back to trend levels. Trend growth over the last 10 and 20 years has been 1.6% and 2.4% per annum, respectively.
However, the recent recovery in Australian inbound air cargo hides the fact that regular airfreight consignments have essentially remained more or less flat for the last 20 years. The chart below shows the ratio of import air trade as a percentage of inbound air traffic measured in metric tonnes. Air trade excludes all consignments worth less than A$1000, while air traffic captures all reported tonnage flown by carriers operating into Australia. A growing gap between air trade and air traffic indicates an increased number of consignments not subject to full customs declarations. This includes most small package traffic and cross border e-commerce.
Taxation statistics and data reported by Chinese customs confirms a surge in low From 1 July 2018, GST was applied to low-value imported goods. Non-resident businesses that report and pay GST under a Simplified GST system are considered limited registration entities (LREs). This provides insight into the scale of cross border e-commerce traffic.
Contrary to other customs authorities worldwide China also tracks exports (and imports of low value goods.
Australian Air Cargo Market Forecast 2025-2030
The infographic below gives an overview of some of the key themes that are likely to shape the outlook for Australian air cargo. Economic and income growth have an impact on future air imports. Population can have an impact but the statistical correlation between airfreight and population growth is weak.
An important driver of air cargo volumes in a market like Australia has been growth in international passenger capacity. On average each passenger flight generates about 6.1 tonne of inbound cargo. When capacity is added to market with the potential to generate cargo demand tends to follow.
Airfreight traditionally was an industrial tool and, in many markets, shows a strong correlation with industrial production. The share of manufacturing as a percentage of Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined from around 11% in 2004 to 5.5% in 2024. In 2024 the US manufacturing share of economic output was 10% and in China it was 25%. The decline as well as the minimal importance of manufacturing can partly explain why air imports have not grown over the past 20 years.
Cross border e-commerce has been a major driver of air cargo volumes, but the current level of growth is not sustainable in the long term. Between 2018 and 2021 the online share of non-food retail sales increased from 9% to 18%. Since then it has essentially stayed at the same level. The growth in cross border e-commerce appears to have taken market share away from domestically based sellers.
With this in mind, we predict average annual growth of between 1.3% and 4.9% for the next six years. The high figure is based on continued but moderating e-commerce growth and could see Australian international inbound air cargo growth by 215,000 tonnes over the next six years. The low figure assumes that e-commerce traffic levels are maintained but show little growth. This would add an additional 53,000 tonnes of inbound cargo could be added.
The factors that drive Australian air freight imports are different to those that drive exports. Australia plays a limited role in global supply chains, although aerospace is an exception. Meat, seafood, fruit, berries and vegetables are the primary export products and rapid growth is limited by the ability to increase output.
As such we have examined two scenarios: one where existing volume grow at trend of about 1.0% per annum and another that foresee a return to previous levels that existed prior to Chines sanctions implemented between 2020 and 2024. This would lead to average growth of 4% per year over the next six years. If previous export levels are achieved in 3 years, annual levels would increase by 130,000 tonnes in 6 years. At growth rates in line with long term trend, annual exports would be 30,000 tonnes higher than current levels.
While the general economic outlook is positive, Australia will be susceptible to an increasingly volatile trade policy and geopolitical environment. Around 6% of overall Australian export value is destined for the US and Australia draws about 12% of its imports from the US. For airfreight around 9% of export weight is destined for the US and 17% of imports come from the US. Individual product groups such as mean or pharmaceuticals could experience greater impacts. An increase in manufacturing costs could impact Australian imports. Forecasting the primary and secondary impacts of major trade policy decisions is a futile exercise, but it is important to understand that these can lead to major changes in the outlook.