The Philippines accounts for about 18% of Southeast Asia’s population and about 12% of its economic output. The Philippines and with Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to be within the top three performers in the region in terms of economic growth, imports and exports. Philippine import and export performance has been disappointing this year, but after a weak first quarter volumes have been picking up since the middle of the year. Indicators point towards further strength.
Philippines Trade Overview
In 2022, the Philippines imported approximately US$86 billion and exported US$66 billion of goods broadly relevant for container shipping and airfreight. As with most of our other trade analysis, we excludes bulk raw materials, energy, mining and agricultural products, aircraft and ships. These tend to skew trade analysis.
Philippines exports and imports are primarily geared towards trade with Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. Three quarters of imports are sources from Northeast and Southeast Asia, while two thirds of exports are destined for Northeast and Southeast Asia.
Semiconductors and related equipment, industrial equipment and parts are the two main export and import commodity groups. The importance of semiconductor exports has increased since 2019.
Philippines Trade Performance
Export and import performance in both 2022 and 2023 has been negative and volatile. Export data shows a spike in October and November 2022, followed by a large drop which continued into the first quarter of 2023. Trade value and tonnage has picked up in mid-2023.
Growth Outlook
Forecasts for the next five years point towards strong GDP, GDP per Capita, import and export growth – much higher than the world average and higher than most other parts of Asia bar Vietnam.
Manufacturing output has slowed in the third quarter across multiple Asian economies, but over the forecast for manufacturing as well as industrial production is positive.
Comments are closed.