Historical and Forecast Electric Car Sales and Stock by Market
In 2022, the IEA estimates that there were about 28 million electric vehicles on the road, of which about 26 million were cars, 1 million vans, 800,000 buses and 300,000 trucks. The number of vehicles on the road were 7 times higher than in 2017. Based on stated policy and announced pledge scenarios, this could increase by a factor of 8-9 over the next 8 years to about 250 million vehicles.
Vehicle sales exceeded 10 million in 2022 are the IEA expect growth of a further 35% in 2023. Plug In Hybrid (PHEV) vehicles accounted for roughly 27% of global vehicle sales, with pure battery powered vehicles (BEV) accounting for the rest. Spending on electric cars in 2022 totalled $425 billion, or about $40,000 per car, as more expensive SUV and large vehicles continue to dominate industry revenues.
However, in terms of number of vehicles sold, China is now that largest market, accounting to 60% of all vehicles sold and 56% of the stock of electric vehicles. China has been the largest electric vehicle market since 2015, prior to that the United States was the largest market in terms of number of vehicles sold. Today the US accounts for about 10% and Europe for 27% of vehicles sold. While the European share of sales is expected to remain at 27% of the global market, policy measures in the US see its share of worldwide sales increase to 21% by 2030. We note that these forecasts are policy / pledge driven and not necessarily market driven.
Electric Car Exports
China is not only the biggest electric car market, but also the biggest electric car exporter – although as a bloc the European Union is larger. Chinese passenger exports overall totalled 2.7 million in 2022 – or about 3.3 million in the 12 months ended April 2023. 1 million (1.1 million of those cars were electric).
China meets most of its own demand for electric vehicles through domestic production – imports for PHEVs and BEVs were in the order of about 110,000 in 2022, mostly from other parts of Northeast Asia and Europe. Based on its export volumes, China has a share of about 21% of the market for electric vehicles in other parts of the world.
The main markets are Europe, other countries in the Asia Pacific Region as well as the Middle East and South Asia. Only a small number of electric vehicles are sold to the Americas. Exports to North America were only 18,000 vehicles in 2022.
While automotive exports from China overall have been following an exponential growth trajectory, electric vehicle exports have shown even strong growth. In the first four months of this year, electric vehicle exports increased 123% compared to the first four months of 2022.
China vs Japan
Other major Asian electric car exporters include South Korea and Japan. China and Japan export similar numbers of cars overall – about 400,000 per month, but the product mix is fundamentally different.
Japanese vehicle exports are still firmly geared towards combustion engines (ICEs). Only about 5% of Japanese vehicle exports in 2022 were PHEVs or BEVs. About 20% of vehicle exports were standard hybrids, which grew by 13% in the first four months of this year.
However, despite being a late starter to the electric vehicle game, recent growth has been strong. In the first four months of this year Japan exported 131% more electric and plug in hybrid vehicles than the same period last year. These vehicles are mainly destined for Europe, the US, Canada and New Zealand.
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